The Optimism Bias
You might expect optimism to erode
under the tide of news about violent conflicts,
high unemployment, tornadoes and floods
and all the threats and failures that shape human life.
But a survey conducted last year found that
while 70% thought families in general
were less successful than in their parents' day,
76% of respondents were optimistic
about the future of their own family.
Overly positive assumptions can lead to
disastrous miscalculations-make us less likely to
get health checkups, apply sunscreen
or open a savings account, and more likely to
bet the farm on a bad investment.
But the bias also protects and inspires us:
it keeps us moving forward rather than
to the nearest high-rise ledge. Without optimism,
our ancestors might never have ventured far from
their tribes and we might all be cave dwellers,
still huddled together and dreaming of light and heat.
To make progress, we need to be able to
imagine alternative realities-better ones
-and we need to believe that we can achieve them.
Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals.
Optimists in general work longer hours
and tend to earn more. Economists at Duke University
found that optimists even save more.
And although they are not less likely to divorce,
they are more likely to remarry-an act that is,
as Samuel Johnson wrote,
the triumph of hope over experience.
Even if that better future is often an illusion,
optimism has clear benefits in the present.
Hope keeps our minds at ease, lowers stress
and improves physical health. Researchers
studying heart-disease patients found that
optimists were more likely than
nonoptimistic patients to take vitamins,
eat low-fat diets and exercise,
thereby reducing their overall coronary risk.
A study of cancer patients revealed that
pessimistic patients under the age of 60
were more likely to die within eight months
than nonpessimistic patients of the same
initial health, status and age.
In fact, a growing body of scientific evidence
points to the conclusion that optimism
may be hardwired by evolution into the human brain.
The science of optimism, once scorned as
an intellectually suspect province of pep rallies
and smiley faces, is opening a new window
on the workings of human consciousness.
What it shows could fuel a revolution in psychology,
as the field comes to grips with accumulating evidence
that our brains aren't just stamped by the past.
They are constantly being shaped by the future.