介绍:
因为工作关系，经常要采访经济学家，所以久而久之对这个行业的一部分人产生了一定的质疑。怎么看砖家是否要被拍砖？ 常上电视电台的不行。没工夫做研究。不出去走基层的不行。 人云皆云的墙头草呢，当然更不行。
经典的经济学家笑话
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today。
经济学家是这样的专家：他明天才知道为什么他昨天的预测今天没有实现。
先来看看关于国家的预测—分别是日本要超过美国，苏联经济要腾飞，朝鲜经济会发展得比韩国好多了。
"Japan As Number One" was released by Harvard social scientist Ezra Vogel back in 1979. It was a popular view at the time that the US economy would soon be surpassed by prosperous Japan, but it looks pretty ridiculous now.
Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel Prize in economics, said in 1961 that "the Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive."
Joan Robinson, one of the 20th century's most prominent Keynesian economists, visited the Koreas in 1964 and said "as the North continues to develop and the South to degenerate, soon or later the curtain of lies must surely begin to tear."
知道黑色星期五吗？ 最著名的就是1929年的10月28日--“黑色星期五”—美国华尔街的股市大崩盘,而影响全球经济。而看看美国经济学家在之前是怎么说的。
Irving Fisher, one of America's greatest ever economists, said in October 1929 that he believed equities had reached a "permanently high plateau." Less than two weeks later, stocks plunged and didn't reach the highs they fell from for 25 years.
2008年—全球金融危机，这前后很多砖家都被打脸。
In December 2007, Goldman Sachs chief investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen made a Fisher-like prediction of her own. She suggested the S&P 500 would hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a climb of 14% — it actually ended below 900.
Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned in his 2007 book "The Age of Turbulence" that the world might need double digit interest rates to control inflation in the near future. Rates have been near zero for the vast majority of the time since.
下面一个AIG的高层2007年说公司从信贷衍生品不可能赔一块钱。结果呢…金融危机中AIG受重创，经营亏损达992.89亿美元，美国政府在一片质疑声中破纪录地向AIG投入1800多亿美元，拯救了这家命悬一线的金融保险服务集团。
Joseph Cassano, who ran insurer AIG's financial products division, had his own financial crisis howler. In August 2007, Cassano said he couldn't see AIG "losing one dollar in any of those (credit derivative) transactions." AIG was bailed out in 2008.
油价也是特别容易错判的。亿万富翁布兰森就搞砸了。现在油价才40美元呢。
In 2010, billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson issued a warning that "the next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch," predicting a severe supply shortage. Five years later, the price of oil is actually lower than it was then.
中国更是错判重灾区，就连金融大师索罗斯也不例外。
George Soros said Chinese inflation was "somewhat out of control" in 2011, with a danger of it spiraling further — but Soros pretty much called the top and four years later, people are more worried about deflation than inflation in China.
今天的中心思想就是，不要盲信砖家！ 货比三砖家！说得好不等于说得对！
