粮食库存压顶

China&`&s mountains of grain in its stockpiles are becoming barriers to lower prices, experts say, and creating a distorted market. For more than a decade, state-set minimum purchase prices have encouraged farmers to rapidly boost the country&`&s food reserves but prices have exceeded international prices in recent years and also put a strain on the country&`&s natural resources. Sources with knowledge of the matter said domestic prices of corn are nearly 1,000 yuan higher per ton than the international price. Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at the consultancy Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. said that by the end of 2015, total reserves of grain will hit 300 million tons. Some experts say China is paying too much in capital and natural resources to maintain the stockpile. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the country consumed about 650 million tons of grain in 2014. The ratio between inventory and consumption stands at around 45 percent, compared to a 17 percent safety line set by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. National stores of corn, sugar and cotton are all much higher than the safety reserve set by the UN, said a researcher at the State Council&`&s Development Research Center. Since the beginning of this year, central government departments have issued a series of policies aimed at the agriculture industry. For instance, the State Forestry Administration plans to convert 6.7 billion square meters of farmland to forest this year. Some commentators have already criticized the proposal as being too minor of an adjustment. In March, Chen Xiwen, deputy director of the Rural Affairs Leading Group, a top party decision-making body, penned an article for the party magazine Qiushi that called for faster transformation of agricultural development under market rules. For Caixin Online, this is Diana Bates. “十一连增”的光环之下，中国的粮食库存正在持续增加，代价则是比国际市场高得多的收购价格。 在持续的托市政策激励下，中国三大主粮出现阶段性过剩，以玉米最为突出。中央财经领导小组办公室副主任韩俊近日表示：“全世界最庞大的库存已经建立起来了”。 据农业部测算，2014年中国粮食消费量约为6.5亿吨。如此，中国库存消费比达到45%左右，远高于联合国粮农组织规定的17%粮食安全标准，即便一些人士认为中国粮食流通条件不好，安全值应在30%左右，中国也多储备了1亿多吨粮食。 国家粮食局局长任正晓“两会”期间回应称，“这是个愉快的负担。我们最期待的就是每年的粮食大丰收，收购量增加对农民卖粮变现增产增收也有好处，当然库存也不是越高越好，不过‘手中有粮，心里不慌’，库里是满的，国家的粮食安全就有保障。” 但一些专家和业内人士则认为，中国为此付出了过大的财政和生态成本。以玉米为例。国务院发展研究中心副研究员伍振军告诉财新记者，2013/2014年度中国玉米库存达到历史最高点1.06亿吨，年末库存消费比高达59.73%。若按17%粮食安全标准计算，中国多储备了7579.6万吨的高价玉米。不算玉米的仓储、运输、利息等成本，若是按照现在价格，进口玉米补充库存，按照2014年9月每吨玉米节省1000元计算，将为国家节省758亿元。