介绍:
Let us look at what lies ahead for the rest of 2017 in trade:
让我们看看2017年余下时间有哪些贸易动向：
Don’t cry for the WTO
不要为WTO哭泣
We began the year worried that the US was poised to withdraw from the World Trade Organisation. That hasn’t happened. And it’s now unlikely to any time soon.
今年伊始，我们曾担心特朗普准备退出世贸组织(WTO)。这种情况并未发生。如今这也不太可能在短时间内发生。
But we are going to get a taste of the new world order when the WTO’s members gather for its biennial ministerial in Buenos Aires in December. It’s unclear, as always, if the WTO will be able to deliver anything of substance. But the real test lies in not having the US leading the way in discussions for the first time in the WTO’s life. Will China step in? The EU? And will India be as minded to block any deal as it has been in the past?
但是，当今年12月WTO成员国聚集在布宜诺斯艾利斯召开两年一度的部长级会议时，我们将一尝世界新秩序的味道。一如既往的是，目前尚不清楚WTO此次能否产生一些实质性内容。但真正的考验在于，WTO有史以来第一次不由美国牵头讨论。中国或欧盟会取而代之吗？印度会像过去一样一心阻挠任何协议吗？
The EU’s Americas gambits
欧盟的美洲布局
The EU is making clear it wants to use the void in US leadership on trade to nail down new trade agreements. The negotiations with the Mercosur trade bloc in Latin America have been going on in fits and starts for more than a decade. But the EU and key Mercosur members like Argentina are now pushing to conclude a deal by the end of this year. That would be a big statement planted right in the US’s backyard.
欧盟正明确表现出，它希望利用美国在贸易上领导力的空缺来敲定新的贸易协议。欧盟在拉丁美洲与南方共同市场(Mercosur)的谈判时断时续，已经进行了10多年。但欧盟和阿根廷等南方共同市场的关键成员国正推动在今年年底前达成一项协议。这将成为一项重要声明，正好杵在美国的后院内。
So too would be concluding the EU’s own (re)negotiation of its existing trade agreement with Mexico. And there is a good chance Brussels could beat Donald Trump to the finish line on a deal with Mexico.
欧盟完成与墨西哥现有贸易协议的（重新）谈判也是如此。在与墨西哥签订协议上，布鲁塞尔很可能比特朗普先冲过终点线。
Potus vs Korus
美国总统vs韩美自由贸易协定
Had the North Koreans not set off another nuclear test at the weekend the big story this week on the Korean peninsula might have been the Trump administration’s odd timing in announcing its plans to pull out of a trade deal with Seoul.
要不是朝鲜再次进行核试验，朝鲜半岛眼下的大新闻可能就是特朗普选在这个节骨眼上宣布计划退出韩美贸易协定了。
As inevitably happens with all things trade in this White House a vigorous debate has erupted over the future of Korus, as the pact is known in Washington. Among the biggest opponents within the administration are the Trump security team, which thinks breaking commercial ties with an important ally in the middle of a geopolitical crisis is probably not a great idea. US business doesn’t like the idea either. Both are likely to mean at least some short-term delays in Washington carrying out any threats. But then again the politics are also volatile in Seoul. Might the new government there exercise its own right to pull out?
正如这届美国政府中一切与贸易有关的事项一样，韩美贸易协定(Korus)的未来也不可避免地引发了激烈辩论。本届政府内部强烈反对退出该协议的是特朗普安全团队，他们认为在一场地缘政治危机期间切断与重要盟友的贸易纽带很可能不是个好主意。美国企业也不支持退出。这两股力量都可能意味着美国政府至少在短期内不会发出任何威胁。但是话又说回来，首尔方面的政治局势也不稳定。韩国新政府是否可能行使自己退出协定的权利呢？
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