2.74亿农民工进入新常态

China’s urban-rural migration patterns appear to be shifting, based on figures from a recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics. A survey released this month shows that the country had 274 million migrant workers at the end of last year, around 1.9 percent more than a year earlier. The figure in 2010 was 5.4 percent, and in 2013, 2.4 percent. Some observers say this is happening because the population of working age people – which the government defines as those from 16 to 60 years old – is shrinking. The report also said the average monthly salary of a migrant worker climbed to 2,800 yuan last year. That was a 9.8 percent raise from 2013, but the first time in five years that the increase was less than 10 percent. The statistics bureau report says more migrant workers are looking for jobs in their own province. Some 105 million of them were working close to home at the end of last year, 2.8 percent more than a year earlier. Dai Jianzhong, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said this is because many companies are moving to central and western provinces, such as Hunan and Sichuan. For Caixin Online, this is Diana Bates. 2014年，中国农民工总量近2.74亿人，这个庞大的群体在“新常态”下也呈现出新的趋势。就总量而言，新增人数逐年下降，“不再是取之不尽的蓄水池”。 近日，统计局公布的《2014年全国农民工监测调查报告》显示，2014年全国农民工共有近2.74亿人，比上年增加501万人，同比增长仅为1.9%，不到2010年增速的36%。当年，外出、本地农民工人数同比增长1.3%、2.8%，都低于上年的同比增速。 从2011年开始，农民工总量增速就呈现持续回落的趋势。2010年至2014年，农民工总量增长速度分别为5.4%、4.4%、3.9%、2.4%、1.9%。 实际上，整体劳动年龄人口的绝对量也在持续下降，中国人口红利正在逐渐消失。截至2014年末，中国16周岁以上至60周岁以下的劳动年龄人口为91583万人，同比减少了371万人，这已经是中国劳动力人口持续第三年绝对量减少。 《调查报告》显示，2014年农民工人均月收入2864元，比上年增加255元，同比增长9.8%，5年间增速首次跌破10%。 2014年，外出农民工16821万人，较上年增长1.3%；本地农民工10574万人，同比增长2.8%，虽然增长幅度都低于上年，但本地农民工的增速却高于外出农民工1.5个百分点。 北京社会科学院研究员戴建中认为这与企业向中西部迁移有关。比如，湖南、四川此前是农民工的流出地，但是由于企业内迁，很多湘、川两地的工人都选择就近就业。