寻求北极机会

Earlier this year, a group of Chinese officials and scientists visited the Norwegian city of Tromso for the ninth Arctic Frontiers conference, where matters related to the northern region were discussed. The meeting brought together 1,400 government officials, scholars and activists from 30 Arctic and non-Arctic countries from January 18 to 23 to discuss climate change and energy matters related to the Arctic. Chinese officials say that China, now the second-largest economy in the world and a major emitter of greenhouse gasses, is important in the fight against global warming. It and many other Asian nations like Singapore, are also voicing greater concern about environmental changes in the Arctic region, increasingly impacting on their countries. Paradoxically the melting Arctic brings economic opportunities for China and Asia. Another reason Asian countries are paying more attention to the Arctic is shipping lanes that could open as more ice disappears. One of these paths is the Northern Sea Route, which runs from the Atlantic Ocean, past Norway and Russia, and then into the Pacific. Six ships sailed from Europe through the route in 2010, and more came in following years. This Arctic route is shorter than the traditional one through Egypt&`&s Suez Canal and the Malacca Strait. The northern path could trim travel time from East Asia to Europe by 30 to 50 percent; a voyage from China could be 40 percent shorter. If an Arctic route could be regularly used, Chinese ships will use it more, said Zhang Pei, an expert from Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. The Arctic region has been found to have oil reserves of more than 90 billion barrels, about 13 percent of the global total, according to a 2008 report from the U.S. Geological Survey. There are also 47 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, which is 30 percent of the world total. Chinese companies are already interested. Getting at Arctic oil and gas will be difficult and expensive, Zhang said, and cash-rich Chinese oil companies could be big players in the field. He warned, however, that they had no advantages in technology and personnel. For Caixin Online, this is Patrick Williams. 2015年1月，第九届“北极边疆”会议在挪威的特罗姆瑟举行。会议内容显示，北极的冰川融化，已影响到中国的气候，且造成部分极端天气。 除了气候系统中的互相牵连，冰川退化还为国际贸易开创了新机遇——海上大规模油气开采、新航道开辟成为现实，对于全球第二大经济体、石油对外依存度较高的中国来说，北极事务将在今后的外交、经济合作中越发重要。 今年会议主题为“气候与能源”，来自北极国家及非北极国家的官员、学者、NGO和记者等共同探讨北极地区的政治、社会和环境问题。对于非北极国家来说，气候变化往往是其参与北极事务的第一张牌。中国也是如此。 随着冰川融化，俄罗斯的北方海航道（NSR）运输能力可能会上升，其可使欧洲到东北亚地区的航运时间减少30%—50%。其中，中国到欧洲的航海时间较之传统航道可节省约40%。 2010年全球共有6艘船只通过北方海航道穿越欧洲和太平洋地区，其后数量有所增加。但Ian Storey分析，北方海航道目前的通航能力并不可靠，短期内无法挑战传统的苏伊士-马六甲航线，尽管其2014年通航船只数量达到53艘，但较之2013年下降25%，而且都只是俄罗斯内部港口通航，没有一例欧洲与亚洲港口之间的通航船只。 参与北极石油开采，可能成为中国的另一项实惠。 根据美国地质勘探局（USGS）2008年7月23日公布的一份为期四年的评估报告，北极地区拥有原油储量约为900亿桶，天然气储量超过47万亿立方米，占全球未探明石油储量的13％和未开采天然气储量的30％。目前全球油气资源日趋匮乏，北极的价值日渐凸显。 上海国际问题研究院海洋与极地研究中心副主任张沛对财新记者分析，北极国家已经意识到域外国家参与的重要性：“北极资源潜力很大，但开发很难，需要很大投入，中国是很重要的合作伙伴。未来航道开辟出来后，使用最多的就是东亚国家。”